美諾華：默沙東百億美金并購慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)新藥
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2025-07-09 21:42:53 四川
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- 默克和Verona 的 100 億美元??的交易，我們應該知道，市場的交易趨勢從悄悄改變到趨勢明朗：交易動力：??Keytruda goes off-patent in 2028.Merck must bridge a ~$30B revenue cliff.靠啥補？??$11B Prometheus (IBD)??$680M Harpoon (T-cell engagers)??$10B Verona adds a new franchise in respiratory??預期給市場提供什么信號？US peak sales could double globally under Merck by 2032.默克為啥付錢？Merck is paying $10B for clarity, speed, and global COPD upside.為啥買？潛力到底在哪？需要啥價值？資產現狀和可預期價值： Ohtuvayre (ensifentrine)??FIC dual PDE3/4 inhibitor??Inhaled, non-steroidal bronchodilator/anti-inflam??Approved for COPD, launch began in 2Q25??Peak sales est: $3–4B+ if uptake delivers??23% premium to last close ($107 vs $87)??2024 sales: negligible??2025E sales: ~$200M??The asset is inhalable, oral, or requires no cold chain.資產潛在價值：（本項目是可拓展適應癥）??Asthma??Bronchiectasis??Long-COVID買了啥確定性？（2 個核心原因）??It’s de-risked. COPD is huge, under-innovated??Verona has clean Ph3 + FDA approval.帶動了啥交易趨勢？??COPD is hot again??Steroid-sparing inhalables are viable??Dual-mechanism pulmonary drugs are back帶動了啥并購趨勢？??Average biotech M&A premium = 62%??Verona’s deal: ~23%??For de-risked, launch-stage assets, pharma pays preemptively.啥資產價值會漲價？??Inhaled??Small molecule??No biologic cold chain??Easy to prescribe, scale, and distribute??The market will rediscover high-convenience small molecules in I&I and respiratory.MNC 的交易趨勢有何改變？不買啥??Merck isn’t buying a platform or a pipeline.要買啥? A de-risked, approvable drug? Real revenue starting now? Expansion potential into adjacent indications? Fit with their existing infrastructure??Late-phase assets??Pivotal catalysts in <12 months??Clear payer story??Commercial scalabilityMNC 交易標準的變化：??1 drug??Approved or post-Ph3??Launch underway??Commercial path clear??Expansion optionality baked in為交易雙方提供了什么核心價值？【The next M&A wave favors real products, real launches, and clean safety, not platforms stuck in Phase 1.】00打賞回復投訴
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